top of page

The Amazon Lost 3.6% of Its Surface Water in 2024

  • Writer: Amazon Connection Carbon
    Amazon Connection Carbon
  • May 10
  • 3 min read

Introduction

In 2024, the Amazon recorded a 3.6% reduction in its surface water compared to the historical average (1985–2024), according to data from MapBiomas. This marked at least seven consecutive months below average water levels (CNN Brasil). Despite this intensified drought scenario, experts point to Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) and Afforestation, Reforestation, and Revegetation (ARR) projects as key levers for generating carbon credits in Brazil’s Northern region, with strong technical, economic, and academic potential (UNFCCC REDD+; IPCC AR6 WGIII).


Nearly 4% of Amazonian wetland areas were lost due to a sequence of extreme droughts, intensified by the El Niño phenomenon and rising regional temperatures (MapBiomas). According to satellite data from MapBiomas, 63% of sub-basins showed below-average water levels in 2024, indicating the biome’s growing vulnerability to extreme events—with direct impacts on river navigation, water supply, and regional logistics (CNN Brasil; MapBiomas).



Opportunities in REDD+ and ARR in the Amazon

REDD+ is a voluntary climate mitigation mechanism that financially rewards the reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, as well as complementary conservation and carbon stock enhancement activities (UNFCCC REDD+ Web Platform). Regional studies in Manaus estimate aboveground carbon stocks ranging from 131 to 227 Mg C/ha, with annual sequestration potential of up to 5 Mg C/ha in areas of secondary forest regeneration (IPCC AR6 WGIII, Ch. 7). Analyses by IDESAM show that state-level REDD+ policies can mobilize robust subnational investments, creating legal and financial instruments to attract private sector partners without burdening the national treasury (IDESAM).


ARR projects—including afforestation, reforestation, and revegetation—aim to remove additional CO₂ from the atmosphere, contributing to net-zero targets and the recovery of degraded ecosystems (IPCC AR6 WGIII). A study by BNDES indicates that over a 30-year horizon, forest restoration initiatives on public lands could generate around 776 million Verified Carbon Units (VCUs), with estimated investments of up to R$60 billion, 91% of which would be concentrated in the Amazon, especially in the states of Pará, Rondônia, and Amazonas (Agência BNDES).


Socio-environmental Co-benefits

In addition to carbon removal, ARR strengthens the regulatory role of the water cycle, improves soil quality, enhances habitat connectivity, and promotes food security through agroforestry systems (Embrapa). Projects supported by the Federal Rural University of the Amazon (UFRA) highlight revegetation practices that increase local biodiversity and create green jobs, with a focus on participatory methods involving traditional communities (UFRA).


Both REDD+ and ARR rely on remote sensing technologies to establish baselines, measure avoided emissions and additional removals, and fully verify project performance (IPCC AR6 WGIII). Tools such as InVEST and the involvement of organizations like the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market ensure methodological robustness, traceability, and the credibility of issued carbon units (Integrity Council).


Market Outlook

The global voluntary carbon market is projected to reach US$50 billion by 2030. Brazil, holding 15% to 20% of the world's natural potential, is poised to lead in both volume and quality of projects (McKinsey; Coopercitrus). Ahead of COP30 in Belém, companies and investors are evaluating ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) strategies involving certified credit purchases, green portfolio expansion, and voluntary mitigation—building synergies between the public and private sectors (BNDES).


Conclusion

Despite the hydrological challenges worsened in 2024, REDD+ and ARR initiatives provide a clear path to monetizing environmental services, restoring ecological functions, and promoting sustainable development in Northern Brazil. The integration of technical, financial, and academic approaches creates a promising outlook for the Amazon to play a central role in the global carbon credit market—backed by scientific and operational data.


Enjoyed the content?

Share this alert and follow ACC’s work in defense of the forest, water, and future generations.



References

Comments

bottom of page