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The Future of the Carbon Market in Brazil: Regulation and Opportunities

  • Writer: Amazon Connection Carbon
    Amazon Connection Carbon
  • 4 days ago
  • 3 min read

Introduction

Brazil is facing a strategic opportunity on the global climate stage: to consolidate a transparent, robust carbon market with high value-generation potential. With the enactment of Law No. 15,042/2024, which regulates the Brazilian Emissions Trading System (SBCE), the country is preparing to establish a national emissions trading framework aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement and the productive sector’s demand for sustainable solutions.



What Law 15,042/2024 Says About the SBCE

Law No. 15,042/2024 sets the foundation for a regulated carbon market in Brazil, defining the sectors required to reduce or offset their emissions, the criteria for credit generation, and the mechanisms for registration, monitoring, and certification.


Today, Brazil already has an active voluntary market—mainly through REDD+ projects, reforestation, renewable energy, and regenerative agriculture. However, federal regulation will enable greater scale, attract investment, and boost trust in the sector.

With the creation of a national system, Brazil could become a global leader in supplying forest carbon credits, thanks to its vast native vegetation and track record of high-integrity environmental and social projects.


Opportunities for Companies and Investors

The enactment of Law 15,042/2024 on December 11, 2024, officially established the Brazilian Emissions Trading System (SBCE), introducing tradable allowances (CBEs) and certificates (CRVEs) that set annual emission caps for major polluters and transform tons of carbon into financial assets (Law No. 15,042/2024, Ministry of Finance). The new framework allows expenses related to certification, auditing, and acquisition of CBEs and CRVEs to be deducted from corporate income tax (IRPJ) and social contribution on net profits (CSLL), according to Articles 46 and 47 of Law 4,506/1964, and reinforced by Decree 11,075/2022—providing legal certainty for companies.


On the private front, Brazil holds 15% of the global potential for natural carbon capture. The voluntary carbon market could grow from US$1 billion in 2021 to as much as US$50 billion by 2030, according to McKinsey.


With the SBCE in operation, major emitters—those exceeding 10,000 tCO₂e per year—must quantify and report their emissions following national standards for measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV), thereby structuring internal inventories and ESG reports to mitigate risks of penalties. CBEs and CRVEs acquire the legal status of securities, making them eligible for securitization and use as collateral in credit operations—attracting institutional investors seeking sustainable assets (Law 15,042/2024).


Additionally, the flexibility to buy or sell surplus allowances directly incentivizes energy efficiency and the adoption of clean technologies, aligning with ESG agendas and enhancing corporate reputation in key global markets.


Credit Lines and Projections Attract Investors

In terms of financing, BNDES offers loans of up to R$500 million per economic group, with grace periods of up to 72 months and coverage of 100% of eligible items, supporting climate mitigation and adaptation projects. Meanwhile, B3—the Brazilian stock exchange—has launched a platform for registering and trading carbon credits, ensuring governance and transparency in national project transactions.


These mechanisms provide companies and investors with robust tools to diversify portfolios in areas such as reforestation, bioenergy, and carbon capture solutions.

Projections show that, in addition to the US$50 billion potential in the voluntary market, Brazil could capture up to 15% of global demand for nature-based credits—translating into revenues of up to US$15 billion by 2030 in conservative scenarios, and potentially US$50 billion in more optimistic ones (Valor Econômico). Companies that act early will not only meet legal requirements but also secure a leading position in both the emerging regulated and voluntary carbon markets.


How ACC Positions Itself in This Landscape

Amazon Connection Carbon (ACC) is already active with carbon projects in strategic regions of the Amazon, combining innovation, technical integrity, and real impact. With expertise in territorial governance, land regularization, emissions inventories, and internationally recognized certifications, ACC is prepared to partner with companies and institutions ready to embrace this new era.


Whether in the voluntary or regulated market, ACC’s work is grounded in science, community respect, and nature-based climate solutions.


Conclusion

The regulation of the carbon market is a key step in transforming climate challenges into opportunities for sustainable development. With planning, transparency, and collaboration, Brazil can become a global benchmark in the transition to a low-carbon economy.


Follow our channels to learn how ACC can support your organization on the journey toward decarbonization and positive impact.


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